Probability of Drawing Three Clubs in a 52-Card Deck with Replacement

Probability of Drawing Three Clubs in a 52-Card Deck with Replacement

Introduction

This article explores the concept of probability in the context of drawing cards from a standard deck of 52 cards with replacement. Specifically, it calculates the probability of drawing three clubs consecutively. We will discuss the methodology, calculations, and provide a deeper understanding of the underlying principles.

Understanding the Problem

The problem at hand is to find the probability of drawing three clubs from a standard deck of 52 cards with replacement. The key here is replacement, meaning each card is placed back into the deck after each draw, ensuring that the probabilities remain constant for each draw.

Step-by-Step Calculation

Determining the Probability of a Single Draw

In a standard deck of 52 cards, there are 13 clubs. Therefore, the probability of drawing a club in a single draw is calculated as:

P(Club) Number of clubs / Total number of cards 13 / 52 1 / 4

Calculating the Probability of Three Consecutive Draws

Since the draws are with replacement, the probability of drawing a club in each draw remains constant at 1/4. To find the probability of drawing three clubs consecutively, we multiply the probabilities of each individual draw:

P(All three are clubs) P(Club) × P(Club) × P(Club) (1/4) × (1/4) × (1/4) (1/4)^3 1/64

Alternate Method: Combinatorial Approach

Another approach to solving this problem involves using combinations. We can calculate the number of ways to draw three clubs from the 13 available, and the total number of ways to draw any three cards from the deck.

Combinatorial Formulation

The number of ways to choose 3 clubs from 13 is calculated using the combination formula (binom{13}{3}):

(binom{13}{3} frac{13!}{3!(13-3)!} 286)

The number of ways to choose any 3 cards from 52 is calculated as:

(binom{52}{3} frac{52!}{3!(52-3)!} 22100)

The probability is then the ratio of these two combinations:

P(All three are clubs) (frac{binom{13}{3}}{binom{52}{3}} frac{286}{22100} 0.01292512925 1/64)

Discussion

The problem can also be approached using the principle of inclusion-exclusion. Here, we account for the cases that are double-counted, such as drawing three numbered clubs (2-10) amid the 36 non-ace numbered cards.

Calculating Inclusion-Exclusion Cases

There are (binom{9}{3} 84) ways to draw three numbered clubs. Thus, the total number of valid cases is:

(286 7140 - 84 7342)

The probability is then:

P(All three are clubs) (frac{7342}{22100} 0.3322)

Conclusion

In conclusion, the probability of drawing three clubs in a 52-card deck with replacement is 1/64. This method can be applied to similar problems involving probability and combinations. Understanding these principles is essential for anyone working with data, statistics, or making informed decisions based on probability.

Keywords

Probability Cards Replacement